Just as a disciplined a soccer player might pass on a hopeful shot in favor of a better chance later on, the biopharma venture capital market reflected a preference for de-risked assts over platforms and is expected to display a “continued, albeit disciplined” recovery in 2026, according to a fourth-quarter PitchBook report.
After bottoming out post-pandemic surge, biopharma venture capital continued to make a modest rebound in 2025. For the second consecutive quarter, deal value rose as capital became more selective and concentrated on fewer, larger deals.
Exit market momentum also grew at the end of last year, with energy coalescing around two investment models: asset-centric new companies focused on late-stage programs or platform solutions for biological or technical bottlenecks. The new company trend typically pairs seasoned leadership teams with in-licensed, mature assets.
Biopharma deal value reached $33.8 billion in 2025, a modest increase from the year before, while deal counts increased for the first year-over-year gain since 2021. While the deal flow hasn’t matched the pandemic-fueled activity of 2021 that was propelled by generalist investors entering biopharma, the VC market continues to recover through selectivity, with more resources committed to fewer deals.
Early-stage investment stats clarify the trend and define the fundamental change in the mindsets of early-stage investors. Since 2020, early-stage funding for biopharma has shrunk from 44% to 32%, while median early-stage funding value has risen 77%, growing from $15 million to $27 million last year.
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Kailera Therapeutics’ $600 million series B raise that followed its $400 million series A boost in late 2024 epitomizes the pattern. The company focuses on late-stage obesity assets licensed from China’s Hengrui Pharma, and last October’s funding aims to propel the obesity program into phase 3.
Additionally, cardiovascular-disease-focused Kardigan raised a $254 million series B round after debuting with $300 million earlier in the year to support its late-stage clinical assets. The company boosted expectations with phase 2b data for danicamtiv to treat certain forms of dilated cardiomyopathy, a condition that enlarges the heart chambers and can interrupt blood flow.
Both deals focus on later-stage assets in lucrative treatment areas, reflecting VC’s diligence, focus and a willingness to take big swings when conditions are right.
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If PitchBook’s prediction is to come true, 2026 will need to avoid last year’s dealmaking disruptions. Major FDA inconsistency, threats to public funding and tariff uncertainties plagued the stability of every industry, biopharma included. Last fall’s government shutdown may have muted fourth-quarter activity, PitchBook’s report said, when a hampered FDA couldn’t process new filings and carry out facility inspections.
In an industry dependent on milestone-based financing, a stable regulatory infrastructure is essential, though last week’s news about the FDA’s denial of Moderna’s flu vaccine hasn’t set a promising backdrop.
The best soccer clubs in the world rarely take a shot on goal unless they are quite sure they will score for fear of losing possession of the ball, and biopharma VC seems to be taking a page out of the manager’s pregame notebook. The year will continue the trend of disciplined recovery through high-conviction capital supporting candidates with clearer paths to returns, the PitchBook report concludes.
